The Patriots (not-so) Crazy Draft Strategy

If I’m Bill Belichick I know two things.  1. That I look awesome in hooded sweatshirts.  and 2. As long as the greatest quarterback on Earth is taking snaps, the Patriots will be fine.  Brady makes everyone better.  So the offense is fine enough that wasting early picks on anyone is silly. 

On defense the team is stacked for the future as well.  With the youngest defense in the league the goal for 2011 and 2012 should be to let them play, improve and keep enough cash on hand to re-sign them all long term.  Other than a few backup corners, linemen or a safety the team can get by with late round picks who the hooded-one can get to over perform as usual.

So, with all that in place, here is the draft strategy for the Patriots in 2011.

Step one is to make nice with Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee.   Here’s why.  Brady is signed for the next few years, so high draft picks are really not critical to the Patriots system, and this year we have a ton of them. 

Why those three teams? Because in three or 4 years these teams will all be cellar dwellers.

Colts:  They will have to pay Manning out the butt and won’t have the money to build a great team around him.  Manning will carry them for 3 years, but then, as he inches closer and closer to 40, retirement becomes a true option.  He is not Brett Farve so we’ll see him on te CBS pregame before ESPN is camped out in his yard waiting for his retirement reversal.  When Manning goes the whole RCA dome may crumble around him.  And when that happens they will be a hurting team.

So, Patriots, maybe it’s not the worst idea to talk with the Colts.  That 33^rd pick this year and a 2nd rounder next year might be just enough to get the Colts 2014 2^nd round pick and their #1 pick in 2015.  It could easily be a top 5 guy.

Seahawks:  This one is pretty straight forward.  Seattle stinks.  They don’t have a QB, RB, or anything close to a quality team.  They lucked out last year making the playoffs, and with a 1^st round win they doomed themselves in the 2011 draft.  Pete Carroll is freaking out because what he planned as a 2 year rebuild is now a 4 year rescue project.  What quality QB can they draft down in the late 20’s?  So.  The Pats are sitting at 17 and that could be a yummy little morsel for the girly-man to call New England and ask for some help.  Carroll knows he needs to make an impact now to save his job so he’ll bet the farm.  Our #17 pick to the She-hawks for their 2012 #2 and a 2014 first round.  And because Carroll is an idiot he’ll keep taking WR out of USC and the Seahawks will be the Detroit Lions of the next decade.  The Seahawks picks will be good ones.   

Then there is Tennessee.  This is the gamble of the bunch.  This is another team hurting for some talent, especially at QB.  I’m willing to bet they will get a QB with their 1^st pick this year but then be looking to add some talent at WR.  The Pats have the late 1^st rounder and a decent WR may be in the mix.  So the Pats could offer up the late first round pick and a third rounder next year for a 2013 second rounder and the 2014 1^st round pick.  The new coach will love having extra picks in his first year and will jump at it.  But the new coach has a lot of work to do and the AFC is not a forgiving place to play.  2013 and 2014 could be tough years for Tennessee.

So where does this leave us.

Well, the Patriots will not make a single pick in the first 2 rounds of 2011.  Not a big deal because the 1^st two rounds are full of semi-talented quarterbacks, running backs and attitude issues galore.  What the Patriots are planning for here is the Post-Brady era.  2014 rolls around and Brady has a year, maybe two, before he decides to quit on top.

Are the Patriots doomed?  No sir, 2014 the Pats are sitting on at least three 1^st round picks, and two set up to be pretty good ones.  The Pats can take a chance on a top QB and still build a few more pieces into the mix.   Then, if that QB doesn’t pan out, 2015 drops a couple more 1^st rounders.  Consider the team rebuilt.

I hate thinking about Post-Brady more than anyone, but 3 years from now maybe a new Brady is wrapping up his senior season in Michigan and is just giddy to be drafted by the Patriots, learn under his idol (Tom Brady), and eventually inherit the team for his own.  

2011 has the Patriots in the driver seat with 3 of the 1^st 33 picks.  But Belichick should stop his scheming now.  Now is not the time to stop trading down.  Now is the time to set-up the Post-Brady Dynasty!