The Patriots (not-so) Crazy Draft Strategy

If I’m Bill Belichick I know two things.  1. That I look awesome in hooded sweatshirts.  and 2. As long as the greatest quarterback on Earth is taking snaps, the Patriots will be fine.  Brady makes everyone better.  So the offense is fine enough that wasting early picks on anyone is silly. 

On defense the team is stacked for the future as well.  With the youngest defense in the league the goal for 2011 and 2012 should be to let them play, improve and keep enough cash on hand to re-sign them all long term.  Other than a few backup corners, linemen or a safety the team can get by with late round picks who the hooded-one can get to over perform as usual.

So, with all that in place, here is the draft strategy for the Patriots in 2011.

Step one is to make nice with Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee.   Here’s why.  Brady is signed for the next few years, so high draft picks are really not critical to the Patriots system, and this year we have a ton of them. 

Why those three teams? Because in three or 4 years these teams will all be cellar dwellers.

Colts:  They will have to pay Manning out the butt and won’t have the money to build a great team around him.  Manning will carry them for 3 years, but then, as he inches closer and closer to 40, retirement becomes a true option.  He is not Brett Farve so we’ll see him on te CBS pregame before ESPN is camped out in his yard waiting for his retirement reversal.  When Manning goes the whole RCA dome may crumble around him.  And when that happens they will be a hurting team.

So, Patriots, maybe it’s not the worst idea to talk with the Colts.  That 33^rd pick this year and a 2nd rounder next year might be just enough to get the Colts 2014 2^nd round pick and their #1 pick in 2015.  It could easily be a top 5 guy.

Seahawks:  This one is pretty straight forward.  Seattle stinks.  They don’t have a QB, RB, or anything close to a quality team.  They lucked out last year making the playoffs, and with a 1^st round win they doomed themselves in the 2011 draft.  Pete Carroll is freaking out because what he planned as a 2 year rebuild is now a 4 year rescue project.  What quality QB can they draft down in the late 20’s?  So.  The Pats are sitting at 17 and that could be a yummy little morsel for the girly-man to call New England and ask for some help.  Carroll knows he needs to make an impact now to save his job so he’ll bet the farm.  Our #17 pick to the She-hawks for their 2012 #2 and a 2014 first round.  And because Carroll is an idiot he’ll keep taking WR out of USC and the Seahawks will be the Detroit Lions of the next decade.  The Seahawks picks will be good ones.   

Then there is Tennessee.  This is the gamble of the bunch.  This is another team hurting for some talent, especially at QB.  I’m willing to bet they will get a QB with their 1^st pick this year but then be looking to add some talent at WR.  The Pats have the late 1^st rounder and a decent WR may be in the mix.  So the Pats could offer up the late first round pick and a third rounder next year for a 2013 second rounder and the 2014 1^st round pick.  The new coach will love having extra picks in his first year and will jump at it.  But the new coach has a lot of work to do and the AFC is not a forgiving place to play.  2013 and 2014 could be tough years for Tennessee.

So where does this leave us.

Well, the Patriots will not make a single pick in the first 2 rounds of 2011.  Not a big deal because the 1^st two rounds are full of semi-talented quarterbacks, running backs and attitude issues galore.  What the Patriots are planning for here is the Post-Brady era.  2014 rolls around and Brady has a year, maybe two, before he decides to quit on top.

Are the Patriots doomed?  No sir, 2014 the Pats are sitting on at least three 1^st round picks, and two set up to be pretty good ones.  The Pats can take a chance on a top QB and still build a few more pieces into the mix.   Then, if that QB doesn’t pan out, 2015 drops a couple more 1^st rounders.  Consider the team rebuilt.

I hate thinking about Post-Brady more than anyone, but 3 years from now maybe a new Brady is wrapping up his senior season in Michigan and is just giddy to be drafted by the Patriots, learn under his idol (Tom Brady), and eventually inherit the team for his own.  

2011 has the Patriots in the driver seat with 3 of the 1^st 33 picks.  But Belichick should stop his scheming now.  Now is not the time to stop trading down.  Now is the time to set-up the Post-Brady Dynasty!

Bull Durham and the Red Sox

Every season has a turning point. A deadline trade for Cliff Lee, a Jason Varitek punch to A-Rods grill, and now...a rain out.

"We need a night off just to stop
our losing streak.  We need a
rainout." - Bull Durham

I'm not the first to point out that, like the Durham Bulls, the Red Sox were in the worst slump in recent memory.  The hitters can't hit and the pitchers can't pitch. The Sox lost on the road and then even the Fenway faithful couldn't get them going.

And just as there seemed to be no end in sight...rain out.  And not one of those rain outs where the teams warm up and wait around wondering if its a delay or the real deal.  It was called very early.  Everyone got to sleep in.  The team probably spent some time with friends and family in town.  They had an extra beer or two the night before, and enjoyed a much needed break from ESPN and Boston Media losing their collective minds over the slow start.  Ahhhhhh.  Sweet rest. I would even go as far as to say some may have plopped on the couch and watched Bull Durham for the um-teenth time.

Have you ever worked late for a few weeks in a row on a project.  You get in to the office early.  You stay late.  You stress about making sure everything goes right from the moment you wake up to the moment you fall asleep. Then, throughout your restless sleep, you dream about what could go wrong and what people will say.  And after a few weeks of this you are dead.  You need a "mental health day" in the worst way.   You need your own personal rain out.   Then after that day off you get back to business like a new man (or woman of course) and things seem to be more clear and fall into place. 

Tonight the Sox open back up against Toronto.  A day off under their belt. A bounce and flare back in the team's step knowing that things are going to change now! 

As a Red Sox fan I am humored by the parallels of the Bull Durham 'rainout' quote.  But I am more hopeful that another Bull Durham quote will be more fitting a few months from now.

"For one extraordinary June
and July, the Durham Bulls, for
whatever perverse reason, began
playing baseball with joy and
verve and poetry...
After sweeping a July 4
doubleheader, the Durham Bulls
were tied for first." 

Go Sox!

Movies! - Golf

It's Masters Week so this fiasco will kick off with golf films.
This category for me is probably the most cut and dry.  There are 5 great movies and the rest is crap.

The Greatest Golf Movie:
No brainer here.  It's Caddyshack.  The comedy genius of Rodney Dangerfield, Bill Murray and Chevy Chase makes this movie funny from the moment Danny is riding his bike into Bushwood CC to the final explosion.  Possibly my favorite "celebrity" run-in during my life was when I was coaching a baseball camp and I got to talking with a parent.  He told me he was the young caddy with the pitchfork to his neck during the "Dali Llama" scene. Arguably the funniest moment in the movie. 

Runner Up:
This is a tougher choice, but Tin Cup gets my vote (and seeing as I'm the only voter, it wins). Tin Cup has a realistic edge that makes it believable. The likable no name (ahem, Johnny Vegas).  The smarmy prick (ahem, Phil Mickelson).  The risky shot at the end that doesn't work while the prick lays up and settles for 2nd (ahem, 2011 Farmers Insurance Open).
The only unrealistic thing in the movie was Peter Jacobsen actually winning something.

The Best of the Rest:
3.  The Legend of Bagger Vance:   Loved the movie.  Debated whether to put it 2nd, but the fantasy nature of it draws me away.  Plus I wasn't a huge fan of the dude having a heart attack on the golf course to kick everything off.

4. The Greatest Game Ever Played:  The actual story is better than the movie.  It's alot like the movie Ali (I know! That's boxing and we'll get the that later).  The actual story of Rumble in the Jungle and Ali's career is great.  Will Smith's attempt at copying that just doesn't do it justice.   So take Francis Ouimet...  His story is maybe the greatest of all time, but the Disney, dramatic version of it just doesn't compare to the book. In a case like this the movie walks a fine line between doing what is most entertaining and what is most accurate. 

5. Happy Gilmore:  It was tough dropping this to #5 because it's funny as all heck, but all golf comedies will be dwarfed by Caddyshack.  Happy Gilmore comes close, but it's more cartoonish than anything and just can't top the 4 above it. 

6. Dead Solid Perfect: Good Movie, but the book is way funnier.  If you haven't read Dead Solid Perfect or Dan Jenkins other books you're missing out.  He was Rick Reilly before Reilly was around.

The Absolute Worst:
Caddyshack 2:  Seriously? Worst Idea ever. Worst golf movie ever.   I rather watch Big Boi in Who's Your Caddy.  Epic Failure

Movies! - The Preface

I've been putting a lot of thought into sports movies lately.  Which ones are good. Which are total crap. Which ones deserve to be considered the greatest films of all time.

My issue with many of the lists and rankings that are out there is the "selection committee's" bias to a particular sport.  One list I saw had Raging Bull, Ali, Million Dollar Baby and When We Were Kings in the top 10.  Just taking a guess here, but that dude loves his boxing.
Same goes for golf.  Tin Cup is a good flick, but one golf-junkie had it Top 3! 

So instead of a rebuttal list of my own (which would be admittedly baseball heavy) I'm going to go sport by sport.  No debate over whether SlapShot is greater than Caddy Shack.  Two different sports = Two different lists.  Apples and Oranges. 

So please enjoy the forthcoming posts about sports movies and their greatness based only on my opinion.  If your favorite is not on there it's probably because I haven't seen it. 

Crouching Tiger

The hate train rolls on.   Tiger woods ousted in the first round of Match-Play!  He’s done!  Finished!  Will he ever win again?

Give me a break.   It’s the usual short-sighted, selective memory, moronic media searching for a story line.

Fact:  Tiger Woods has not won in his last 16 PGA Tour events.

Fact:  Phil Mickleson hasn’t won in his last 17 PGA Tour events.

Whaaaat?  Sir Eats-A lot has lost more consecutive events than Tiger?  Inconceivable!

But there is more…

Let’s look at a few big events they both played SINCE The Masters.

1.       US Open:  Tiger and Phil tied for 4^th. 

2.       British Open: Tiger  T-23^rd   Phil T-48^th

3.       WGC Invitational:  Ok, Tiger blew up on this one and ended in 78^th while Phil scrapped a T48th spot.  Neither very good.

4.       PGA Championship: Tiger Struggled to a T-28, but Phil fell out of the top 10 and T-12

Then the Fed-Ex Cup Playoffs started.  Basiclly the best field of competitors possible.

1.       Barclays:  Tiger finished T-12… Phil MISSED THE CUT!

2.       DBank Invitational: Tiger T-11… The Almighty Phil T-25

3.       BMW:  Tiger T-15 … Phil 8^th

After That was the Ryder Cup.  I know the US didn’t win it, but in this battle Tiger went 3-1 for 3 USA points while Phil bombed with a 1-3 record and a measly single point.

Then cap off 2010 with another World Golf Championship event where Tiger tied for 6^th and Phil puked up a T-41 finish.

I’m not saying Tiger had a good 2010, but other than Phil winning the Masters (only three spots ahead of Tiger), Phil got whooped by Mr. Woods. 

So why on Earth is the media bashing Woods, saying he can’t compete and deeming his reign over, while Phil can barely keep up with Tiger?  The media makes Phil out to be a contender every week.   He always has a shot.  He’s hitting the ball longer than ever.   His game is as sharp as it’s been in years.   Why the horrible bias?

Now, some may say Phil has had a better 2011 PGA Tour so far, but come on.  The Farmer’s Insurance, Waste Management Open, AT&T Pro-Am and the Northern Trust Open?!

Phil finished 35^th in the Northern Trust and no one said a word.

Tiger loses in extra holes in match play to a hot golfer, Thomas Bjorn, who just spanked a stacked field in the Qatar Masters.  HELLO! Match Play! A hot golfer can beat anyone.  So boo-hoo Tiger lost. 

If Tiger won the whole event people would still say “yeah, but it’s match play.  Not the same as a 4-day grind.”

If Tiger won the Farmer’s Insurance Open people would say, “Yeah, but it’s early season.  Let’s see how he does in the Masters.”

And WHEN Tiger wins the Masters people will still grouse, “Yeah, but he loves Augusta. It’s a easy course for him.”

To all of you I say simple…Shut your moronic pie-hole and watch the greatest player play.

And I leave you with things to think about:

1.       In 2010 Dustin Johnson did not finish Top-5 in any Majors… Tiger finished Top-5 Twice.

2.       In the Ryder Cup Tiger tied Steve Stricker for most points… Stricker was his partner in 3 matches.

3.       In 2003-2004 he changed his swing and dropped to 4^th on the money list. He had an equally long losing streak at that time.  Once he worked through the issues he won 4 or the next 8 Majors.

4.       Tiger Woods has finished in the Top-6 in 7 of the last 10 majors he has played in.

…Tiger hasn’t gone away.  He’s just getting warmed up

PGA Tour Buffalo Wings

The new wave is infiltrating the traditionally old stuffy world of the PGA, and never is it more evident than when Phoenix hosts the Waste Management Open!  St. Andrews this is not!  Augusta National…far from it.

Phoenix has created the single greatest golf arena in the history of the game. The 162 yard, Par 3, 16^th hole.  Surrounded tee to green with stadium bleachers, hospitality tents, and beer vendors galore it is the opposite of golf.  It’s loud. It’s rowdy. It’s unsophisticated. It’s AWESOME!

True, this may not be the way golf was meant to be played, but oh baby is it the way golf was meant to be watched!  Gone are the ascots and pleated pants.  Enter tank tops and jean shorts!  Gone are the gin and tonics and in are pounders of PBR and beer funnels.  Golf claps?! How about screaming, cheering, booing, jeering fans who are watching AND CARING about every shot on that hole.

Stick it close, a cheer equal to a David Ortiz walk-off homerun in Fenway erupts.  Plug it in the sand or bail out right be prepared for a course of boos echoing your own thoughts of aggravation over a poor effort.  Oh, and if you don’t acknowledge the fans… you’re dead.  Not just for that one time either.  The fans will remember and you will become Lebron James walking into Cleveland.

Players bring fans candy, throw souvenirs into the crowd, joke with fans, wave at fans, APPRECIATE THE FANS!

The Phoenix Open is THE most attended golf tournament on tour.   Not the Masters.  Not the Players Championship.  The Waste Management Phoenix Open…and that is without one Tiger Woods in attendance.   Is it because it’s just that much more exciting?  No! It’s because it is FUN…god forbid.

Put it this way…

Legal Seafood is a great dinner, but more people go to Hooters. Does that mean buffalo wings better than grilled salmon? Not really, but often I rather roll out of the house in jeans and a tee-shirt, suck down a pitcher of beer, and go home with some money left in my pocket.  I certainly enjoy a nice dinner every now and then, but not every time I eat.

The PGA needs more buffalo wings.  That’s all I’m saying.  And The Phoenix Open this weekend is the biggest, rowdiest, PGA Tour Hooters in the world.

This one is for the fans…and the PGA should take notice.

Tin Cup Vegas

I was first introduced to Phil Mickelson back in 1996.  I was a very young caddy at a golf course near Boston and I was just struggling to play and enjoy the game of golf.  I tried to get out as often as I could, but as a caddy you are at the bottom of the list for late afternoon tee times.   Relegated to only Monday play, and often sharing the course with the grounds crew making repairs, it was hard not to develop an animosity to the members who viewed me as “just a caddy”.

1996 marked the release of the great golf movie “Tin Cup” starring Kevin Costner.  Early in the movie a baby-faced Phil Mickelson played in the group with David Sims (played by Don Johnson) and took bets on if the caddy, Roy “Tin Cup” McAvoy would be able to make a challenging shot.  My memory is Phil betting against the caddy as mumbles of “he’s just a caddy” wafted through the crowd.

And so it was. Phil Mickelson, albeit just in a movie, represented every country club member who didn’t think a simple caddy could play on the same course as him.  I’m sure Phil is actually a good guy, but my young brain was set that day.

Fast forward to this past Sunday.  18^th hole. Par 5. Long carry over water. Hmmm….sounds familiar.

It’s a three way battle between Bubba Watson, Phil, and newcomer Jhonny Vegas.

Watson is sitting a million miles down the center of the fairway with 186 yards in for what is a sure 2-putt birdie and a two shot lead.  Vegas is first to play.

Jhonny is starring at 217 yards out of the first cut of rough. He’s assuming Bubba makes birdie so he needs to make Eagle to force a playoff.   He pulls out the 5-iron and really leans on it.

As the ball sailed in the air Vegas is yelling, “GO BALL!” eerily similar to Roy McAvoy willing his ball over the water on 18 for an eagle try that would give him the US Open title.  No playing it safe for either of these guys.  Go Ball!  Clear the water! Give me a chance!

Splash and splash. Both McAvoy and Vegas met the same fate.  Ball in the water.  Title hopes dashed and a disappointed following.  Vegas would make bogie and finish in a tie for third. Vegas failed, but he failed valiantly.

Then, standing 226 yards away from the pin, like a Clint Eastwood character with a club in hand, Mickelson is starring at the pin. It’s time to go big or go home.  Eagle and we go to extra holes.  A birdie and it’s steak knives. 226 yards from the rough.  This is the man who laced a fairway metal from between two trees, over water, 6 feet from the pin on the way to a Masters green jacket. He’s got this.

But then, in David Simms style, Phil pokes an iron down to 100 yards.  A perfect layup, but a layup nevertheless. 

Theatrics and bravado aside, the chances of holing out from 100 yards is slim at best. Sure he came close, but golf doesn’t give partial credit for close shots.  Phil made a tap in birdie and walked away with sole possession of 2^nd place. Bubba Watson walked away with the trophy. 

Nice birdie, Phil.