The Patriots (not-so) Crazy Draft Strategy

If I’m Bill Belichick I know two things.  1. That I look awesome in hooded sweatshirts.  and 2. As long as the greatest quarterback on Earth is taking snaps, the Patriots will be fine.  Brady makes everyone better.  So the offense is fine enough that wasting early picks on anyone is silly. 

On defense the team is stacked for the future as well.  With the youngest defense in the league the goal for 2011 and 2012 should be to let them play, improve and keep enough cash on hand to re-sign them all long term.  Other than a few backup corners, linemen or a safety the team can get by with late round picks who the hooded-one can get to over perform as usual.

So, with all that in place, here is the draft strategy for the Patriots in 2011.

Step one is to make nice with Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee.   Here’s why.  Brady is signed for the next few years, so high draft picks are really not critical to the Patriots system, and this year we have a ton of them. 

Why those three teams? Because in three or 4 years these teams will all be cellar dwellers.

Colts:  They will have to pay Manning out the butt and won’t have the money to build a great team around him.  Manning will carry them for 3 years, but then, as he inches closer and closer to 40, retirement becomes a true option.  He is not Brett Farve so we’ll see him on te CBS pregame before ESPN is camped out in his yard waiting for his retirement reversal.  When Manning goes the whole RCA dome may crumble around him.  And when that happens they will be a hurting team.

So, Patriots, maybe it’s not the worst idea to talk with the Colts.  That 33^rd pick this year and a 2nd rounder next year might be just enough to get the Colts 2014 2^nd round pick and their #1 pick in 2015.  It could easily be a top 5 guy.

Seahawks:  This one is pretty straight forward.  Seattle stinks.  They don’t have a QB, RB, or anything close to a quality team.  They lucked out last year making the playoffs, and with a 1^st round win they doomed themselves in the 2011 draft.  Pete Carroll is freaking out because what he planned as a 2 year rebuild is now a 4 year rescue project.  What quality QB can they draft down in the late 20’s?  So.  The Pats are sitting at 17 and that could be a yummy little morsel for the girly-man to call New England and ask for some help.  Carroll knows he needs to make an impact now to save his job so he’ll bet the farm.  Our #17 pick to the She-hawks for their 2012 #2 and a 2014 first round.  And because Carroll is an idiot he’ll keep taking WR out of USC and the Seahawks will be the Detroit Lions of the next decade.  The Seahawks picks will be good ones.   

Then there is Tennessee.  This is the gamble of the bunch.  This is another team hurting for some talent, especially at QB.  I’m willing to bet they will get a QB with their 1^st pick this year but then be looking to add some talent at WR.  The Pats have the late 1^st rounder and a decent WR may be in the mix.  So the Pats could offer up the late first round pick and a third rounder next year for a 2013 second rounder and the 2014 1^st round pick.  The new coach will love having extra picks in his first year and will jump at it.  But the new coach has a lot of work to do and the AFC is not a forgiving place to play.  2013 and 2014 could be tough years for Tennessee.

So where does this leave us.

Well, the Patriots will not make a single pick in the first 2 rounds of 2011.  Not a big deal because the 1^st two rounds are full of semi-talented quarterbacks, running backs and attitude issues galore.  What the Patriots are planning for here is the Post-Brady era.  2014 rolls around and Brady has a year, maybe two, before he decides to quit on top.

Are the Patriots doomed?  No sir, 2014 the Pats are sitting on at least three 1^st round picks, and two set up to be pretty good ones.  The Pats can take a chance on a top QB and still build a few more pieces into the mix.   Then, if that QB doesn’t pan out, 2015 drops a couple more 1^st rounders.  Consider the team rebuilt.

I hate thinking about Post-Brady more than anyone, but 3 years from now maybe a new Brady is wrapping up his senior season in Michigan and is just giddy to be drafted by the Patriots, learn under his idol (Tom Brady), and eventually inherit the team for his own.  

2011 has the Patriots in the driver seat with 3 of the 1^st 33 picks.  But Belichick should stop his scheming now.  Now is not the time to stop trading down.  Now is the time to set-up the Post-Brady Dynasty!

Bull Durham and the Red Sox

Every season has a turning point. A deadline trade for Cliff Lee, a Jason Varitek punch to A-Rods grill, and now...a rain out.

"We need a night off just to stop
our losing streak.  We need a
rainout." - Bull Durham

I'm not the first to point out that, like the Durham Bulls, the Red Sox were in the worst slump in recent memory.  The hitters can't hit and the pitchers can't pitch. The Sox lost on the road and then even the Fenway faithful couldn't get them going.

And just as there seemed to be no end in sight...rain out.  And not one of those rain outs where the teams warm up and wait around wondering if its a delay or the real deal.  It was called very early.  Everyone got to sleep in.  The team probably spent some time with friends and family in town.  They had an extra beer or two the night before, and enjoyed a much needed break from ESPN and Boston Media losing their collective minds over the slow start.  Ahhhhhh.  Sweet rest. I would even go as far as to say some may have plopped on the couch and watched Bull Durham for the um-teenth time.

Have you ever worked late for a few weeks in a row on a project.  You get in to the office early.  You stay late.  You stress about making sure everything goes right from the moment you wake up to the moment you fall asleep. Then, throughout your restless sleep, you dream about what could go wrong and what people will say.  And after a few weeks of this you are dead.  You need a "mental health day" in the worst way.   You need your own personal rain out.   Then after that day off you get back to business like a new man (or woman of course) and things seem to be more clear and fall into place. 

Tonight the Sox open back up against Toronto.  A day off under their belt. A bounce and flare back in the team's step knowing that things are going to change now! 

As a Red Sox fan I am humored by the parallels of the Bull Durham 'rainout' quote.  But I am more hopeful that another Bull Durham quote will be more fitting a few months from now.

"For one extraordinary June
and July, the Durham Bulls, for
whatever perverse reason, began
playing baseball with joy and
verve and poetry...
After sweeping a July 4
doubleheader, the Durham Bulls
were tied for first." 

Go Sox!

Movies! - Golf

It's Masters Week so this fiasco will kick off with golf films.
This category for me is probably the most cut and dry.  There are 5 great movies and the rest is crap.

The Greatest Golf Movie:
No brainer here.  It's Caddyshack.  The comedy genius of Rodney Dangerfield, Bill Murray and Chevy Chase makes this movie funny from the moment Danny is riding his bike into Bushwood CC to the final explosion.  Possibly my favorite "celebrity" run-in during my life was when I was coaching a baseball camp and I got to talking with a parent.  He told me he was the young caddy with the pitchfork to his neck during the "Dali Llama" scene. Arguably the funniest moment in the movie. 

Runner Up:
This is a tougher choice, but Tin Cup gets my vote (and seeing as I'm the only voter, it wins). Tin Cup has a realistic edge that makes it believable. The likable no name (ahem, Johnny Vegas).  The smarmy prick (ahem, Phil Mickelson).  The risky shot at the end that doesn't work while the prick lays up and settles for 2nd (ahem, 2011 Farmers Insurance Open).
The only unrealistic thing in the movie was Peter Jacobsen actually winning something.

The Best of the Rest:
3.  The Legend of Bagger Vance:   Loved the movie.  Debated whether to put it 2nd, but the fantasy nature of it draws me away.  Plus I wasn't a huge fan of the dude having a heart attack on the golf course to kick everything off.

4. The Greatest Game Ever Played:  The actual story is better than the movie.  It's alot like the movie Ali (I know! That's boxing and we'll get the that later).  The actual story of Rumble in the Jungle and Ali's career is great.  Will Smith's attempt at copying that just doesn't do it justice.   So take Francis Ouimet...  His story is maybe the greatest of all time, but the Disney, dramatic version of it just doesn't compare to the book. In a case like this the movie walks a fine line between doing what is most entertaining and what is most accurate. 

5. Happy Gilmore:  It was tough dropping this to #5 because it's funny as all heck, but all golf comedies will be dwarfed by Caddyshack.  Happy Gilmore comes close, but it's more cartoonish than anything and just can't top the 4 above it. 

6. Dead Solid Perfect: Good Movie, but the book is way funnier.  If you haven't read Dead Solid Perfect or Dan Jenkins other books you're missing out.  He was Rick Reilly before Reilly was around.

The Absolute Worst:
Caddyshack 2:  Seriously? Worst Idea ever. Worst golf movie ever.   I rather watch Big Boi in Who's Your Caddy.  Epic Failure

Movies! - The Preface

I've been putting a lot of thought into sports movies lately.  Which ones are good. Which are total crap. Which ones deserve to be considered the greatest films of all time.

My issue with many of the lists and rankings that are out there is the "selection committee's" bias to a particular sport.  One list I saw had Raging Bull, Ali, Million Dollar Baby and When We Were Kings in the top 10.  Just taking a guess here, but that dude loves his boxing.
Same goes for golf.  Tin Cup is a good flick, but one golf-junkie had it Top 3! 

So instead of a rebuttal list of my own (which would be admittedly baseball heavy) I'm going to go sport by sport.  No debate over whether SlapShot is greater than Caddy Shack.  Two different sports = Two different lists.  Apples and Oranges. 

So please enjoy the forthcoming posts about sports movies and their greatness based only on my opinion.  If your favorite is not on there it's probably because I haven't seen it.